Strong Contenders of World Cup 2011

Strong Contenders:
The world cup is under way and unlike the previous editions where the only question was whom the Aussies were to face in the final, this world cup provides room for competition. The predictions are like music-chairs for many. The greats like Ganguly, Gavaskar, Viv Richards said there are no ‘favorites’. In other words, they couldn’t pick a team as favorites or they didn’t want to take any risk of picking someone as favorites. Let’s come to the point. What I would be sharing here is about some of the curious insights into this world cup and the strong contenders and factors that would be vital in this tournament.

First of all let’s take the groups and you will see that group B is easy for reserving a place in the Quarter finals. With Zimbabwe, Kenya and Canada merely making up the numbers; SL, AUS, PAK, NZ will easily qualify to the quarter finals. From there, it is just three matches jackpot, anybody can win it. It is that kind of a crazy fixtures which allowed Srilanka to win the event in 1996 in which they won 3 matches due to forfeit by other teams in group stage and won next three games with relatively fresh and unexposed players. That is why this world cup can also be won by even Pakistan or New Zealand.

In Group A, Bangladesh with their local support, spin attack and strong top order will make West Indies and England run for their money, but I don’t see them reaching the quarter finals. Ireland is also expected to give a spring of shock to giants like India, South Africa, West Indies and England. If teams play to even 50% of their potential, India, South Africa, West Indies and England must be through.

But is that enough? The answer is Yes and No. If you closely look at the fixtures, India and Srilanka must win all their matches in group stages to become B1 and A1 respectively, which would give them leverage to play an easy quarter final away and a tough semifinal at home. If that happens, then it will be India vs Srilanka at Wankhade stadium, Mumbai on 2nd April (too early to tell though). Given the knowledge of local conditions, crowd support teams will feel safe at home, but this might backfire as in the semis of 1996 for India. But this time around, if India becomes B1, they will fancy their chance to go all the way truly because of the friendly batting track at Colombo and Mohali where they need to play the quarter and semi in this case. Also it will be early Diwali for India as they most probably face New Zealand on a turner in Colombo. What happens if India becomes B2? You know what; India will face the biggest dark houses Pakistan at Mirpur which will be dangerous purely because of pressure and Pakistan has nothing to lose.

There are a lot of views about the strong contenders of the tournament. With the recent form, I feel the strong contenders line up in the following order India, Srilanka, Australia, South Africa and England. Well Pakistan and West Indies are the two dark houses in each group. Let’s see one by one:
India without any argument has the strongest batting lineup in paper. Sometimes one’s strength is also weakness and it is exactly the same for India. Indian batting had collapsed so often, even in 3 out of 5 matches in the recently concluded ODI series in South Africa. Dhoni and Kris Srikkanth might call it an “Odd Day” but if that odd day is in quarter or semifinals, then they will have to answer a lot. But one positive thing is, with Sachin, Sehwag, Gambhir and Kohli at the top order it has never happened in ODIs. This Indian batting is almost of the same caliber of the Aussie top order in 2003 and 2007 which no teams could breach just like the walls of Troy. But an out of form Yuvraj is a worry there but he can be taken easily. Dhoni’s flexible batting position is a handy option to change the tactics according to the situation.
A lot has also been said about the bowling and yes it is a weakness if you compare it with their batting. If India thinks that they can score the runs which they leak in their bowling, they will be beaten up. The biggest worry in the bowling lineup is the wicket taking option. In cricket, attack is the best way to defend. If India opts to play three seamers and leave Sreesanth, they are striking nails for their own caffeine. With Zaheer, Munaf, rusty Nehra and volatile Harbhajan (if Harbhajan doesn’t get a wicket in his first two overs, he goes wicket less and leaks runs too) it never looks menacing. India must play two spinners against all the teams to give themselves a weapon to threat the opposition. Then the next question comes, who must be left out? If I were Dhoni I will leave Yuvraj and have a specialist spinner in his place because Yuvraj is there mostly for his bowling. But the most practical and suitable option would be to sit out Nehra and play Piyush Chawla. Dhoni need not worry about 20 overs of power play to cope with because full bowling power play and 4 overs of mandatory power play can be exploited by spinners. And India can open the bowling with YK Pathan with Zaheer. India has the captain with best temperament. Overall, it all depends on what final 11 India will play and how well they handle situations. I see India going all the way this time.

Srilanka arguably has the best balanced team by a fair distance. With the three M’s clibre (Murali, Malinga, Mendis) the bowling attack looks more than match winning. Malinga’s injury is a concern for them which might hinder their chances. But he must be fit before the quarters by latest. Kulasekara consistent bowling may not even secure him a place in the final eleven with both the all-rounders Mathews and Thissara Perara doing well with the ball. Fiery Dilshan, solid Tharanga, ever solid Jayawardene and splendid Sangakkara make a solid top order. But the problem in the whole lineup is the fragile middle order with Chamara Silva, Perara and Samaraweera. If the cream of the top order is removed, then there is no sponge (middle order) in the cake it goes to the hard baked layer. Sangakkara’s captaincy is something that is always a big lacuna as far as I am concerned. His attitude in the field will irritate anyone who is watching. He is certainly not captain cool to handle pressure situations. This is one point where others score more than Srilanka. But the around edibility of the team, agility in the field makes them one of the strongest in the tournament.

Coming to the next team it is the mighty Australians who could well be on their way to the fourth consecutive title win. But their batting order doesn’t show solidity after top 4 just like the Srilankans. More worries for Ponting would be the absence of experienced Mike Hussey and the lack of temperament and technique against quality spin bowling by his youngsters. But Aussies always find a way to win. I just remember the Aussies going into a big tournament before with the same problem and win it. It was 2009 in South Africa, Champions Trophy when they had youngsters who were new and unpredictable. But Aussies won the tournament hands down as the top order Watson and Ponting made sure they didn’t lose more than two wickets throughout the series. That’s what is taking responsibility and that’s why they are undisputed Champs. But this time around, in subcontinent conditions I don’t see them scoring a lot of runs especially with the middle order they have. Again Watson at the top of the order will be the key. Aussies have chosen attacking options in bowling which is fantastic. Lee, Johnson, Tait, Watson and Krezja they have the best bowling lineup for the tournament. Many might think they are at wrong place having bowlers who will hit the radar 150 km/h all the time. Aussies have success in India with similar tactics in Test matches when Dravid was the captain. I think that’s their biggest strength. I dare say they have the strongest bowling attack for the tournament. If they manage to put a score of 280 they can fold any team. India would be a bit afraid to face the mighty Aussies at Mohali in Semi. If the Aussies qualify for semi then my money will be on them to go on and win the title, simply because of the experience of being in crunch situations in finals a lot of time before.

South Africa and ‘Chokers’ are the two words closely related as far as World Cup is concerned. But this time they have Amla, AB devilliers, Smith in the form of their life. The pace duo of Steyn and Morkel is the most menacing of all and could be a nightmare for any opener even in the flat low tracks. However, I am not sure of their bowling tactics. I haven’t seen their secret weapon Imram Tahir so far (Good on You SA, finally you got one instead of donating players like Pieterson and Trott). His figures are quite admirable and we will wait to see him before we comment. Dropping Boucher could prove costly as he is not only the best keepers around but also a dashing option to utilize the power plays. The lower middle order of Du-Plessis, Botha, Peterson looks long-tail and lack power hitting options. I heard that SA will play three spinners in most matches which will be a boomerang as far as I am concerned. Because they most probably will have to face Pakistan in quarters and if they qualify will have to face SL in semis where they will need to change the tactics to all pace attack. If they continue to play spin, well that will be quite fascinating to watch the Asians milking the inexperienced spinners of SA. Unlike Australia, South Africa are not playing to their strength, instead they are taken up by the conditions which is hard to fathom. One has to wait and watch how far they go this time around. I will be surprised if they reach the semifinals and win it.

England has been building a solid team since the tour of India in 2008. Andy Flower, the coach must be given a lot credit for it. There are a number of injury woes which clouds the English team which tends to upset them. The choice of opening with Kevin Pietersen doesn’t seem to be wise as the middle order lacks prolific scorers of the middle overs. Collingwood has been struggling for a while, loss of Eoin Morgan due to injury, no second spinner in the team are the worries for the team. Recovery of Broad and Bresnan, with likes of Swann (easily my best contemporary off-spinner) and Anderson make a formidable bowling attack. Collingwood’s cutters will be a plus and will get him loads of wickets. The good thing is unlike all the other teams, their lower order has potential batsmen like Bresnan, Broad, and Swann. They might well play Australia in the quarters at Ahmedabad and might well be the 5th team of the tournament and the first one to miss the semifinal bus among the Strong Contenders.
My Quarter finals prediction:
Match fixture Possible predicition Venue Favorites
A1 Vs B4 Srilanka vs West Indies Mirpur Srilanka (C)
A2 Vs B3 Australia Vs England Ahmedabad Australia (D)
A3 Vs B2 Pakistan Vs South Africa Mirpur Pakistan (E)
A4 vs B1 New Zealand Vs India Colombo India (F)

My Semifinals prediction:
Winner C Vs Winner E Srilanka vs Pakistan/ South Africa Colombo Srilanka (1)
Winner D Vs Winner F Australia Vs India Mohali Australia/India (2)

Finals:
Winner 1 Vs Winner 2 Srilanka Vs Australia/India Mumbai India/Srilanka/Australia


I feel India, Srilanka and Australia will be the three teams among which two will contest in the finals of 2011 WC. Having said that, as they say “Cricket is funny old game”, which has surprised many and will continue to do so.. Anyways, sit back and enjoy the thrilling contest and subcontinent run feast. Watch out for my predictions and get back to me during and after the world cup. Cheers…

Cricket Fanatic,
Paul Pown Raj